A final version of the controversial pension reform that has set off massive protests and strikes in France is to be put to a vote in both houses of parliament on Thursday. It is unclear if the government's party in the National Assembly has rallied enough votes to pass the legislation, and whether it will resort to push the reform through anyway if it fails.

A joint commission of Senators and MPs agreed on a final version of the bill on Wednesday, and both houses are set to vote Thursday on the legislation, which would raise the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 years old.

The bill is likely to pass in the Senate, but in order for it to pass in the National Assembly, which failed to vote on a first version of the legislation, lawmakers from French Emmanuel Macron's party depend on support from the opposition conservative Republicans (LR), and some have expressed hesitations.

"In my group, as well as in the ruling party, there are some MPs who do not want to vote for this reform," the top-ranking LR lawmaker in the Assembly, Olivier Marleix, said on Wednesday evening.

The government has argued the reform is necessary to reduce deficits and keep the system economically viable. The opposition warns the reform will penalise low wage-earners and will force people who started manual jobs young to work longer than graduates, who would be less affected by the changes.

Resorting to force?

If MPs fail to pass the legislation, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne could use a power in article 49.3 of the constitution that would allow her to push it through anyway, without a vote.

France's article 49.3 a handy constitutional tool to bypass parliament

Resorting to this, however, would expose her and Macron's government to a confidence vote, which it might lose.

"We don't want the 49.3," government spokesman Olivier Veran said on Sunday. "We want there to be a positive vote for this bill."

If the bill does pass, the political implications of a reform opposed by most of the population are also uncertain for Macron and the country at large.

Opinion polls show that two-thirds of French people oppose the reform and support a protest movement organised by trade unions, who have unified behind their opposition, leading a massive resistance since the start of the year.

Strikes continue

After an eighth general strike and protest day on Wednesday, some sectors are extending their mobilisation on Thursday, including transport and energy workers.

A rolling strike by city garbage collectors in Paris also continues, with 7,600 tonnes of uncollected waste piling up on the city's streets.

Bin collectors' strike seeks to thwart French pension reform

Late Wednesday, prefect Laurent Nunez said he will requisition workers and force them back to work, after Socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo refused to do so, writing on Wednesday that the protests were "fair".

A private collection company, Derichebourg, which was had been collecting some garbage in some of the worst-affected areas said Wednesday it would stop after strikers threatened to block the entrances to its site.

(with news wires)

Originally published on RFI